Global Markets Open August with Rising Volatility
Could weak U.S. jobs data and an OPEC production twist be the recipe for short-term relief, or are they just masking deeper cracks in the economy? Global markets are entering the second week of August in reaction mode, digesting a flurry of cross-market moves that spanned tech, commodities, crypto, and currencies.
After Friday’s disappointing payroll report, the narrative has quickly shifted toward dovish Fed speculation and softer macro expectations. Add to that an unexpected supply decision from OPEC and crypto’s attempt to claw back from recent losses, and you’ve got a market teetering between relief and retracement.
From gold’s glittering comeback to a dollar on the backfoot, here’s what traders should be watching in the week ahead.
Big Earnings, Big Misses? Investors Brace for Tech Volatility
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq snapped their bullish streak last week, ending lower as economic signals dimmed and mega-cap earnings loomed. With key tech names reporting this week, markets are bracing for a potentially rocky stretch in growth sectors.
Investors are weighing how much optimism is already priced into the AI rally and whether rising costs or global slowdown fears might weigh on guidance. With the Nasdaq up more than 30% YTD, the margin for error is razor-thin.
What’s next: Tech earnings will act as a sentiment barometer. Strong beats may reignite bullish momentum, but any miss, especially on outlook, could accelerate profit-taking.
Quick Hits:
- U.S. indexes closed sharply lower last week
- Tech-driven momentum faces a critical test
- CPI data on Thursday will heavily influence Fed expectations
Fed Cut Bets Surge After Weak Payrolls Drag Down Dollar
The U.S. dollar retreated sharply last week as investors reassessed Fed policy following a weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report. July’s job creation fell to just 73,000, with significant downward revisions to the prior two months. The data added fuel to the idea that a rate cut could come as soon as September.
The euro, under pressure earlier in the week, found support and bounced higher on Friday, helping EUR/USD longs avoid a major flush-out.
Why it matters: Currency markets are hypersensitive to economic data surprises. This week’s inflation release could either validate or reverse current market positioning.
Quick Hits:
- Dollar Index slips after jobs data disappoints
- Fed rate cut bets strengthen for September
- EUR/USD: 1.1585 (+0.0173%), rebounds as euro finds relief rally momentum
Bitcoin Stabilizes After Trade-Fueled Volatility
Bitcoin hovered near $61,400 on Monday, rebounding from a sharp sell-off last week that briefly pushed prices below the $60K mark. The drop was largely driven by renewed global trade concerns, but bargain hunters stepped in as BTC approached key support levels.
While some altcoins also saw modest recoveries, overall crypto sentiment remains cautious. Traders are eyeing macro signals closely, with few willing to aggressively chase upside without clearer momentum.
Heads up: Bitcoin saw wide intraday swings between ~$115K–$118K last week. While volatility has cooled, traders remain wary of another sharp leg.
Quick Hits:
- Bitcoin price: ~$115K
- Broader crypto market still facing macro headwinds
- Inflation and Fed outlook to influence short-term direction
Oil Slides as OPEC Signals September Output Hike
Oil markets softened late last week after OPEC+ announced a plan to increase supply starting in September, a move that surprised some analysts expecting steady production. Both Brent and WTI contracts edged lower on the announcement.
While the group framed the decision as a sign of confidence in global demand, concerns about slowing economic growth in the U.S. and China are keeping bulls in check.
Watch this: If upcoming economic data continues to point to a slowdown, oil could come under more pressure, especially with added barrels on the way.
Quick Hits:
- OPEC+ to raise output in September
- Brent crude: down to ~$68.30 a barrel
- Demand outlook still clouded by macro uncertainty
Gold Glitters on Safe-Haven Flows and Rate Cut Hopes
Gold prices surged following last week’s weak U.S. jobs report, which strengthened bets for an imminent Fed pivot. The metal held gains into Monday, with prices comfortably above $3,416.
With inflation data on deck and the dollar weakening, gold is finding fresh safe-haven demand. Traders are increasingly positioning for policy easing and continued global uncertainty.
Quick Hits:
- Gold rallies on softer jobs data and Fed speculation
- Weak dollar adds tailwind to bullion
- CPI release could trigger next move higher
Trade Tensions Escalate: Trump’s New Tariffs Seen as Locked In
Markets looking for tariff relief were dealt a reality check this week, as the latest round of Trump-imposed duties appears unlikely to be rolled back. According to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, the new tariffs, unveiled last Friday via executive order, are expected to remain in place despite ongoing trade talks.
The latest executive order includes steep tariffs: 35% on Canadian goods, 50% on Brazilian imports, 25% for India, 20% for Taiwan, and 39% on Swiss products. While previous trade negotiations led to reduced rates, like a recent deal with the EU, Greer made it clear that such flexibility likely won’t apply to this round.
On a slightly more optimistic note, Greer added that discussions with China had been “very positive,” particularly regarding the supply chain for rare earth magnets and minerals: materials critical to industries ranging from electronics to defense.
Quick Hits:
- Trump-EU trade deal reduced tariffs to 15%
- Trump imposes new tariffs: 35% (Canada), 50% (Brazil), 25% (India), 20% (Taiwan), 39% (Switzerland)
- U.S.–China talks improving on rare earth supply chain issues
The Week Ahead: CPI, Earnings, Central Bank Signals & More
This week delivers a potent mix of economic data, earnings, and central bank commentary. All eyes will be on Thursday’s CPI report, expected to shape expectations for a September Fed cut. Meanwhile, tech earnings and global trade headlines could inject added volatility.
On the watchlist:
- CPI Inflation Report: Key test for rate cut odds
- Tech Earnings: High bar set, can big names deliver?
- Fed Speakers: Post-jobs report commentary in focus
Don’t Watch the Market, Compete In It
Markets may have found temporary balance last week, but the undercurrents are shifting fast. From gold’s resurgence to OPEC’s surprise, traders are entering a period of heightened sensitivity to both data and narrative shifts.
At BullRush, we help you stay ahead of the curve. Whether you’re competing in our paper trading challenges, gunning for a Profit Sprint leaderboard win, or refining your edge before trading real prop capital, this is the week to show up sharp.
Buy the next BullRush trading challenge and prove your instincts. When the data hits and the market moves, will you be the one who’s already there?
