AFC Wild Card Breakdown: Matchups & Storylines
Ladies and gentlemen, the NFL playoffs are officially upon us. After a wild Week 18, it is safe to say that the field is set.
In the final game of the week, the Steelers outlasted the Ravens thanks to a missed potential game-winning field goal by Ravens kicker Tyler Loop. With the win in the bag, Pittsburgh locked up the AFC North and the No. 4 seed in the AFC.
That leaves us with our seven-team playoff field. We can leave out the Denver Broncos, who earned their rest since securing the No. 1 seed with their win over the Chargers on Sunday.
AFC Wild Card Matchups
- #5 Texans @ #4 Steelers
- #6 Bills @ #3 Jaguars
- #7 Chargers @ #2 Patriots
Let’s break down the games that will define Wild Card weekend.
Texans @ Steelers: Rodgers’ Last Stand?
Monday night football gets the spotlight, and all eyes are on Pittsburgh.
Aaron Rodgers is back on the playoff stage, chasing what could be the final Super Bowl run of a legendary career. Pittsburgh gets a massive boost with DK Metcalf returning from suspension, injecting big-play juice into an offense built on explosive moments.
But there’s a problem… And it’s a big one. The Steelers can’t defend the pass to save their skin. They’re surrendering 244 passing yards per game, bottom-10 in the league, and that’s a dangerous flaw against a Texans team hitting its stride at exactly the right time.
After a sluggish start, C.J. Stroud has flipped the switch. As a result, Houston’s passing game is surging, with rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel stepping up as real weapons for the squad. The Texans roll into the playoffs on a six-game winning streak, and while the offense grabs headlines, we can safely say the defense is the foundation.
Houston is allowing just 17.4 points per game, second-best in the NFL, and that balance makes them one of the most dangerous teams in the bracket.
Rodgers brings experience. Stroud brings momentum. Something has to give.
Bills @ Jaguars: No More Excuses
This is the year or it’s never.
With Kansas City Chiefs missing the playoffs, Josh Allen no longer has a safety net of excuses. The path is open, and the pressure is real. Buffalo’s strength is clear: they lead the NFL in rushing at 159.6 yards per game.
The problem? Their run defense is brutal, allowing 136.2 rushing yards per game, fifth-worst in the league. That’s where Jacksonville comes in.
Trevor Lawrence is back in the playoffs and playing the best football of his career. Under first-year head coach Liam Coen, the Jaguars shocked the league, winning the AFC South behind Lawrence’s 4,000+ yards and 29 touchdowns.
We’ve seen Lawrence rise from disaster before. Remember the four-interception first half against the Chargers? He turned that nightmare into one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history.
If Jacksonville protects the ball and controls the run game, they can absolutely send Buffalo Bills home early.
Chargers @ Patriots: New England’s New Era Test
Foxborough feels different and dangerous again.
Drake Maye, a second-year quarterback, changed the Patriots rather than just making them better. New England went from 4–13 in 2024 to 14–3 in 2025, securing the No. 2 seed and elevating Maye to the top of the MVP competition.
A major reason? Stefon Diggs. He became the first Patriots receiver since Julian Edelman (2019) to eclipse 1,000 yards, giving Maye a true alpha target.
On the other sideline, Justin Herbert is getting ready to face an uphill battle. The Chargers’ offensive line has managed to betray him all season: 54 sacks allowed, third-most in the league. Despite having talent in Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, and Quentin Johnston, consistency is somehow missing time and time again.
If Herbert wants a shot at the upset, he’ll need to extend plays with his legs and survive the pressure from the Patriots’ relentless defense built to close games.
Final Word: Playoff Pressure Creates Legends
This is the stretch where legacies are made and seasons end in seconds. One bad read, one missed kick, one blown assignment, and it’s over. That’s the reality of the AFC playoff picture heading into Wild Card Weekend.
If you’re watching these games thinking “I could’ve called that”, it’s time to put your football instincts to work.
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AFC Wild Card FAQs
Q: What is the most intriguing AFC Wild Card matchup?
The Texans vs. Steelers. You’ve got Aaron Rodgers chasing one more ring against a Texans defense that’s been elite all season. Experience versus momentum.
Q: Do the Bills finally have a clear path without the Chiefs?
Yes, and that’s exactly why the pressure is on. With Kansas City out, this might be Josh Allen’s best shot yet. No excuses left.
Q: Can Trevor Lawrence make another playoff run?
He’s done it before. If Lawrence protects the football and Jacksonville controls the run game, the Jaguars are absolutely live.
Q: Is Drake Maye already an MVP-level quarterback?
All signs point to yes. A 14–3 record and the No. 2 seed in his second season speaks for itself. Now comes the postseason test.
